Resolution of the International Leninist Current, June 2002
Afghan contradictions remain explosive
New round of the Great Game opened with uncertain outcome
Despite ousting of Taliban world order underminded
The military defeat of the Taliban regime against the US was predictable and inevitable. The disparities between the most powerful military force of mankind and irregular forces equipped nearly exclusively with light arms could not be bigger. Nevertheless the Taliban did not capitulate but could withdraw and dislocate important parts of the forces. The fierce resistance mounted like in the besieged town of Kunduz was nothing else than heroism – a decisive motive in the Afghan tradition which thus was refreshed and will keep effective in the future. The Taliban served as a victim to be slaughtered under the eyes of the global media to restore the honour of the world´s leading nation shattered by the September 11 attacks. On the surface the ruling world power seemingly proved to be able to strike back thus defending their dominance against all those willing to challenge it. However, the contradictions within the US-led imperialist world order keep growing at an increased pace and its dominance is steadily being undermined.
However, already merely scraping on the surface reveals that the US was not strengthened by its attack against Afghanistan and the subsequent declaration of permanent war against all forces not willing to subordinate. The fact that they were still not able to catch Bin Laden who has been painted to be the Great Daemon is only a subordinated aspect. Actually they only exacerbated the contradictions in the country, in the region and in the entire world without having the means to solve even one single of them. The declaration of permanent war is the admission that their global dominance is increasingly losing consent and has more and more to resort to military power and brute force. A sentiment of besiegement has spread among the US regime being terrorized by an enemy who is not to be spotted and can strike at any time. While the all out hysteria seems to be ridiculous as even intensified attacks of Islamic militants could not do major harm to the US regime, their importance can only be understood as a symbol, a herald, a metaphor for the inevitable rise of much more powerful states and popular rebellions posing a real threat to the global US rule.
Afghanistan questioned?
Coming back to the Afghan arena, the US attack actually wiped out the last Afghan proxy of Pakistan, who is itself the main historic instrument of the US in the region. It is a proven fact that the US gave green light to Pakistan to supported the ascendancy of the Taliban to power after the Mujahedin displayed to be unable to seize power. This created not only a political vacuum among the Pashtuns, Afghanistan´s main nationality, but also furthered the alienation of the Pashtuns towards Pakistan. Pashtun nationalism contains a contradiction to Pakistan as the latter splits the Pashtun populated area in two parts along both sides of the Durand line. With Islamism of the Mujahedin or Taliban brand Pakistan tried to channel Pashtun nationalism and use it to control Afghanistan. This has definitely failed. The pupil is turning against its master. By further leaning towards the US in hunting the Islamic movement Pakistan is creating an explosive situation also among its 25 million of Pashtuns who only wait for an occasion to strike.
The real winner on the ground are the forces of the Northern Alliance consisting of the different national, ethnic and religious minorities. In fact the Hindukush has been turned by them into an insurmountable barrier in a way it has not been since the British occupation in the mid of the 19th century. Even the Pashtuns which had been settled in the North and Northeast in order to serve as pillars of the central state have been expelled. This puts the entire conception of Afghanistan as a state into question.
Afghanistan was created as a buffer state between the British Empire and Russia in the first round of the Great Game. As direct colonial rule turned out to be too costly because of the strong resistance and to return too less benefits British imperialism decided to give independence to Afghanistan. It supported the erection of a central state which – despite its historic weakness – at least partially served their interests and blocked further Russian expansion to the South. The attempts of the ruling elite first to modernize the country along the Kemalist model (King Ammanollah) and later to lean towards the Soviet Union (Kind Zahir Shah and his cousin president Daud) failed as there was neither an autochthon capitalist development nor one forced upon the country from outside. Afghanistan essentially remained divided into countless semi-feudal semi-tribal entities without a significant modern bourgeoisie. Afghanistan therefore could not develop into a nation state. Although the Kingdom was formally Pashtun, the language of administration was Dari, an Eastern variant of Farsi, with several other languages spoken side by side typical for the make-up of pre-capitalist oriental societies.
Social revolution failed – so did nation building
As all attempt for a capitalist modernisation without social revolution had failed, only the seizure of power by a social revolutionary intelligentsia organised in the Khalk faction of the PDPA eventually led to a decisive change of the course of history though not in the direction intended by them. They were faced with the same problem as some decades before the Kemalists. The lack of developed social classes – neither capitalists ones nor feudal ones. As Amanollah had no bourgeoisie to rest upon, Amin and Taraki did not find the proletariat and the poor peasantry as a political subject to model society along their radical programme. Modern history has taught us that the intransigent intervention of a Jacobin social revolutionary elite can create that subject in the framework of the unfolding world revolution. However, feeling the weak ground beneath their feet the Afghan revolutionaries precipitated into radical reform imposed from above upon the poor classes alienating them instead of winning them. Their sole instrument was the army.
Doing so they decisively violated the international equilibrium of forces prompting the massive intervention of both the US and the USSR in a new round of the Great Game. It was in the following twenty years of civil war that initiated as a class struggle in its course turned into a conflict between national, ethnic and religious forces only creating them as distinct national communities in a modern sense. It was the late Najibullah to understand this and to create a patchwork of alliances between those groups which enabled him to the surprise of imperialism to survive three years after Russia had withdrawn its forces. And it was finally the very defection of general Dostum – the incarnation of the inner Afghan nation building also promoted by Najibullah – from this alliance which caused his fall and the following total degeneration of the war into a mere rivalry between feudal, religious, tribal and national groups completing the fragmentation of the country.
Also the Islamic movement failed to bring unity to the country
The Taliban were the last attempt to unify the country this time under the banner of Islam. Their strength – beside the support by Pakistan – was their break with the discredited feudal Mujahedin leaders like Hekmatyar and their origin as a movement of the lumpen proletariat created by the war. By imposing their specific interpretation of Sharia they succeeded in stopping the disastrous civil war and gained at least for a while the support of the masses including the minorities by appealing to the Umma, the community of all Muslims. However, Islamism could cover only insufficiently Pashtun nationalism. Therefore their rule more and more appeared to the diverse minorities as a foreign occupation. This is one decisive reason why also they finally failed to unify the country.
The Jamiat-I Islami of the Panshijr Tajiks with their historic leader Masoud were the only ones not to surrender to the Taliban. Although essentially feudal and reactionary with Masoud they were able to modernize the leadership dragging in some bourgeois elements and thus providing a stronger control over the popular masses. Thank´s to the US intervention they are now by far the strongest military force controlling the main levers of power in the interim government. They have the best and most disciplined soldiers, the best equipped and professional army and are supported via Tajikistan by Russia and therefore under their strong influence – an alliance which already dates back to the days of Najibullah. By the Russian engineered power sharing agreement between the government and the Islamic forces Tajikistan could be stabilised and can serve as a safe hinterland. Despite US attempts to get their feet on the ground also in Tajikistan this former Soviet republic kept its pro Russian stance.
The different factions of the Hezb-i Wahdad of Shiite Hazara as well as the Tajiks around Herat led by the feudal Ismail Khan also control their respective areas and demand their share of power. For cultural, religious and geographical reasons they are essentially allied to Iran. The Uzbek militias of Dostum have proven to be the most unsteady ones. They will ally to whoever will guarantee their regional control and the maximum share of power in the interim government.
The de facto split of the country seems to be a historic reality unlikely to be reversible in short or medium period of time. The most developed and richest regions both in terms of agriculture and natural resources like oil, gas and minerals are located north of the Hindukush depriving the Pashtun belt of decisive preconditions for an economic development. The creation of an Afghan nation state therefore seems to be out of reach unless there is a powerful economic development which is very unlikely in the current stage of the crisis of capitalist globalisation. Neither Pashtun forces will be able to control the North nor will the quarrelling minority forces which represent not more than 30% of the population be able to control the Pashtun South. Under such condition even the pipeline project of the US to access the oil and gas deposits of Central Asia cannot be realised.
Interim government unable to resolve contradictions
The reactionary Loya Jirga or Grand Assembly did not decisively alter these relationships of forces. Despite the attempt of some leftists to cover it as “traditional democracy” it completely excludes the popular masses who never voted for the representatives participating in the meeting. Patronized by the West and its military forces the feudal and reactionary leader of the different groups will continue to bargain over a power sharing agreement saving for their respective groups as well as for themselves as much resources and influence as possible. The ex monarch Zahir Shah should provide authority and stabilize such a deal. The anti-imperialist forces have to fight the Loya Jirga an the interim government emanating from it. However, given the exhaustion of the masses, the warring parties themselves and the Western pressure a continuation of the pro-imperialist reactionary interim government presided over by Hamid Karzay but essentially controlled by the Panshijr Tajiks and their allies of the Northern Alliance is likely. However, the main contradiction remains unsolved. Despite Karzay being a Pashtun feudal leader the Pashtun majority is not represented by the government also due to the political vacuum among them. Without the military presence, the political pressure and the financial support of imperialism the interim government would break down at once.
The decisive question is revolving around the political representation of the Pashtun majority. Though Karzay tried to drag support behind him by using the ex King he essentially only represents his single feudo-tribal entity. Although the Taliban suffered a defeat and were ousted from state power and thus suffered also a political crisis they could dislocate some troops and still remain – though fragmented – as a political and also military force in a modern sense beyond feudo-tribal loyalties with some influence in the lower classes. Whether they can rise again maybe in an Pashtun nationalist form depends on one hand on the intensity and brutality of the Western hunt on Islamic forces and on the other whether Karzay is able to create a Pashtun feudo-bourgeois force with some popular backing overcoming its feudo-tribal limits. Anyway, a limited protracted guerrilla resistance against both the imperialist troops as well as the representatives of interim government is already going on and could possible grow.
After more than twenty years of a destructive and exhausting civil war the popular masses need some rest and are unable to express their interests against their respective dominant feudo-bourgeois reactionary classes. However, the war has severely damaged that pre-war social relations and created a vast mass of poor deprived of the feudo-tribal loyalties. If the imperialist intervention and presence provides at least for some years a certain stability social conflicts in diverse forms will emerge.
The anti-imperialist and communist forces have first of all to support all those forces mounting resistance against the imperialist military presence and their puppet regime in Kabul. They have to oppose the Loya Jirga and call for a constituent assembly based on general election as well as a land reform providing the landless and poor peasants (including those returning from refuge) with land to sustain their basic livelihood. They have to call for the unity between the different communities against imperialism, the interim government as well as their reactionary community leaders though respecting and defending autonomy rights – an autonomy which can be conceived only partially in territorial terms given the intermingled character of the national, ethnic and religious groups.
Pashtun nationalism may however assume specific importance as an instrument to bring down the Pakistani military regime and to overcome the reactionary partition of the Indian sub-continent all together. A unified Pashtunistan in the frame of a democratic federation of the Indian sub-continent could become an important anti-imperialist slogan both with the ongoing exclusion of the Pashtun majority from the interim government and the deepening of the crisis of Pakistan. On the other hand we refuse the chauvinist aspects of Pashtun nationalism against national and also religious minorities granting them their right to self-determination.
Cards distributed for a new round of the Great Game
Afghanistan is not of prior economic interest to US imperialism as it was not for the British. Its importance stems from the geo-strategic role in the unfolding new round of the Great Game. Although imperialist intervention, presence and pressure is for the time being the only guarantee to keep the instable and fragile equilibrium of forces in place and therefore to avoid a fresh round of civil war and to preserve some superficial stability, the war has in the last instance strengthened its rivals Russia and Iran and weakened the Pakistani influence. With the attack on the Islamic movement it has not only annihilated the Pakistani strategy towards Afghanistan, Kashmir and India but also severely shaken its very existence. The US is about to decisively degrade or even to loose a powerful long term proxy in the region.
An the other hand the US succeeded in establishing military basis in most of the Central Asian republics. With Usbekistan, by far the most important one among them, there seems even to be a strategic co-operation. Despite the importance of these ties nevertheless the last word has yet not been spoken. Putin has certainly embarked on a line of adaptation towards imperialism. But anybody knows that Russia is for many reasons still a strategic adversary. A change of regime, which can easily come about, could bring confrontation back to the surface. All those Central Asians states depend still in many ways on Russia.
Also the US´ wooing of India against China is not more than a tendency with uncertain results. Now India seems to join this game but it knows that Washington is still manoeuvring with the historic divide between India and Pakistan and fears India becoming too strong. Therefore a tri-partite alliance with Russia and China remains a strategic option.
From the permanent US terror war to the anti-imperialist liberation war
With the attack on Afghanistan and the ongoing war against the Islamic movement the US has in no way won a strategic victory. It has only ignited a new round of the Great Game and poured fuel into the flames. The contradictions in the region have only been exacerbated as in Afghanistan itself. They will explode as soon as the US-led mono-polar world order will show its first serious cracks.
Regarding the Islamic movement which has been chosen as the main enemy to legitimise the “war on terrorism” the Afghan setback has only led to a further radicalisation. As the Islamic masses collectively were not only openly declared target of a new crusade but feel the growing impact of the imperialist attacks since decades their opposition, their determination to resist and fight is undoubtedly growing. Whether the Islamic movement will be able to understand the decisive importance of the interest of the poor classes for the giant anti-imperialist battle coming up on the horizon will decide upon their future. There are strong signs that at least a part of them has learned its Afghan lesson that the reactionary pro-imperialist regimes of the region are no allies but only the exploited and oppressed masses. In any case the US has deepened the contradiction with and within the Islamic world without inflicting a decisive defeat on the movement.
The logic consequence of the growth of contradictions is the declaration of permanent war against any incipient force of resistance and rebellion in order to preserve its absolute supremacy. But this will in the long run only further deepen the contradictions and the resistance. Already one single victory can lead to a general rebellion against the US world order. We are heading towards a major confrontation.
International Leninist Current
June 2002
